There are times in any endeavor when the stars align and the proper course of action is as clear as a bell. We’ve all had our moments when even we knew we, “were on a roll.” However, most of life’s endeavors and their eventual successes come simply from the honest trudge of hard work and dedication to a specific task. This explains the late 2015 early 2016 success as many of the commodity market were displaying classic commercial trader group clues which we discussed frequently in our Commitment of Traders analysis. This led to catching several of the market rallies like the metals, energies and grains. However, as these moves have disconnected over the last month or so, the next set of predictions becomes much more difficult. This week, we’ll look at the issue of profitable trading via mechanical programs while using the interest rate sector as a barometer for the general markets’ confusion as the global rate picture remains one of the biggest variables.
We’ve been tracking the interest rate complex even more closely since October when we saw the commercial traders beginning to place their bets ahead the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) December meeting and while we’d like to take credit for the predominantly correct calls in the interest rate sector through 2015, we really have to chalk it up to knowing who to follow. The commercial traders have done a great job of anticipating both the FRB’s actions and the market’s reactions. Join us as we determine how their recent actions have affected the bond markets and what the spread movement in this market sector could mean to the broader economy going forward.
The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates for the first time in years, China is falling apart and tensions continue to grow between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The combined chaos these events have generated have moved the 30-Year Treasury Bond futures less than one handle over the last year. In fact, the converted yield on the 30-year Treasury Bond futures has risen .0726% over the last calendar year. Therefore, in spite of the noise in the markets, the reality is that not much has changed.
This week will be a short myopic view of the internal workings of the interest rate futures market sector focusing on a potential short selling opportunity in the 10-year Treasury Note futures.
Trading is a funny thing. There are times when the reasoning behind a market’s actions are spot on. There are times when the reasoning turns out to be wrong yet the directional prediction holds fast. Finally, there are times when the reasoning is dead right and the market does the exact opposite of what was expected. It appears that our September through October forecast was directionally solid. However, based on the data I’ve compiled over the last week, I believe the jump in volatility has merely shaken things up, rather than signaled a major change in market sentiment.