This week’s primary analysis focused on, “The Interest Rate Conundrum.” Since this is a macro piece, I thought I’d review the last bits of trading in more detail. The trades over the last two weeks are a great look into the real world of discretionary trading. We’ve had a loser that bounced back as quickly as it knocked us out (sugar), a non-event of a trade (bean meal), a nice winner (silver) and another fish on the hook (hogs). If we can land the last one, it’s a decent week trading….warts and all.
This week, we took a step back and looked at the markets in groups. We focused on the metal and meat markets in general while only discussing specifically, a soybean meal trade.
Re-Shuffling the Metal Markets which we wrote for TraderPlanet focused on the growing commercial trader position in the precious metals. There’s no question they’ve been big buyers on the recent decline and their total positions are controlling a larger percentage of open interest with each additional contract they buy.
See our mechanical Soybean Meal program’s Equity Curve
We ended the week with a broad outline of the interaction between commercial traders and seasonal analysis in hogs and cattle. We featured the current seasonal charts by Moore Research and combined them with our own Commitment of Traders charts to demonstrate effectiveness of these tools when combined.
See all 9 charts and commentary in Hogs and Cattle Bottoming Out.
See the equity curve for the Meats Sample Portfolio.
This week started off with our Chicago wheat futures analysis for TraderPlanet in which we discussed looking for a selling opportunity near the 50% retracement level at $6.05 just through the resistance at $5.80. Tuesday, the market traded to $6.10 before selling off down to $5.70. Tuesday’s reversal also triggered the entry for our COT Signals Mechanical system.
The wheat trade came straight from our nightly discretionary COT Signals which has a 30-Day Free Trial.
Tuesday we discussed the growing glut in the crude oil futures market because we noticed how actively commercial long hedgers are locking in future supplies. We still see this as a trading opportunity.
Finally, our main piece focused on the Diminishing Effects of Global Quantitative Easing. This is where we left off in Hand Quantitative Easing to Germany. We did not expect Japan and now, China to come in and throw gasoline on the fire the way they have but the fact is, we now have three major regions kicking in QE programs since late September compared to the US enacting three programs over the course of four years.
This week’s theme was the same as last week, expecting that some of these markets had gone too far, too fast and were ripe for a turnaround. Like last week, our strategies have continued to be on the wrong side of the markets.
Combine our programs to build your own Equity Curve.
See our Sample Portfolios for examples and ideas including the portfolio tracked at Futures Truth.