Yesterday, Bernanke stated that a weak Dollar was not in America’s best interest. Typically, this statement would be argued against based on a weak Dollar’s contribution to exports helping to grow a weakened domestic economy. Bernanke’s point, I think, is that inflation is a bigger worry than recession. Dollar based commodities, primarily grains and energy are having a greater negative impact on our economy than can be offset through higher exports. Inflation in these primary goods is acting as a tax on the American consumer. Right now, the economy cannot create enough high quality jobs fast enough to offset the economic pain that is felt at the gas pump and grocery store.Further more, Bernanke also stated that he will work with Secretary Paulson to defend the Dollar’s decline. This is important because the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are separate entities. It is a big deal that Bernanke used language such as, “In collaboration with our colleagues at the Treasury…” as well as, “…ensuring that the Dollar remains a strong and stable currency.”
These are strong words from the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The perfect storm could be brewing……strengthening Dollar combined with regulatory action, via the CFTC closing the “swap loophole” on Commodity Index Traders could bring liquidation across the commodity spectrum. It will be important to check the Commitment of Traders Reports for position changes.