We discussed the growing imbalance in the unleaded gasoline market last week here at Equities.com. Our primary focus was based on two points. First, the fundamentals in the petroleum sector are bearish. Secondly, the commercial traders as a group have now turned negative on their own product at these prices. These two factors have grown in strength over the last week and Monday’s weakness finally triggered an official COT Sell signal.
The United States is awash in domestically produced crude oil. U.S. crude oil inventories just hit a 26-year high. Heck, just last year North Dakota passed Ecuador’s production and Ecuador is a member of OPEC. Furthermore, the U.S. is expected to takeover the crown as largest global oil producer from Saudi Arabia as early as 2020. The questions that keep coming up are two-fold. “Why hasn’t the price of oil fallen and why are gas prices still so high.” The answer is simply, politics and logistics.