Tough week in the markets as we generally got continuation where we were looking for rebounds. This led to a a pair of losers in gold and the Canadian Dollar against a winning trade in the stock indices due to their rebound.
We focused on two main themes this week. First, we looked at selling the Euro currency for TraderPlanet and followed it right up with a look at the Dollar Index on Tuesday for Equities.com. Meanwhile, our main piece focused on the grain markets ahead of Tuesday’s USDA Acreage Report.
It’s been an exceptionally confusing week to trade on a discretionary basis. Rarely can I recall a time when the markets have been more unsure of their next move. Fairly well every financial market has LOUD voices on both sides making good cases for their positions and their market forecasts. Between the FOMC meeting and the constant worry about whether or not or, when Greece will default has made picking a side based on theory and economics all but impossible. Despite this, we managed to remain fairly unscathed trading feeder cattle, Eurodollar and 30yr Treasury Bond futures; even a bit profitable.
We began the week with Bond market analysis for TraderPlanet. We looked at the tremendous and rapid build in the commercial trader position noting that the recent sell off may be nearing exhaustion. Based on Thursday’s reversal and ECB/IMF/Greek hope quickly deteriorating, we feel the short-term bang for the buck may be best on the long side of the market.
Tuesday, we focused on, “A Pause in the Yen’s Destruction.” We noted the rapid application of the Prime Minister and Bank of Japan’s plan to monetize their debt in a last ditch effort to reflate their economy. Like the Bond market, this market has seen tremendous and rapid commercial trader buying as the Yen fell to Y120 = $1.
Finally, we looked at the disconnect between nearby crude oil prices and current fundamentals. It’s hard to get bullish about supply cuts a year out when current inventories are the highest they’ve been in 80 years as we noted in the Energy Information Agency’s, ” Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data.”
Read – “Sell Crude Oil at $65 Per Barrel.”
We began this week with a big picture look at the natural gas market for TraderPlanet. Combining fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis, we suggest that this market will stay soft in, “Natural Gas: $2.50 Here We Come.”
Tuesday, we moved to the soybean market in our piece for Equities.com. We looked at the considerable commercial buying as this market has declined and noted that, as this decline has stalled, a good case could be made for a, “Soybean Short Trap.” July soybeans are $.20 higher since publication.
Finally, our primary focus was an update on last week’s inflation topic. This week, we examine entry level wage inflation and the competition between government subsidy programs and employers in, “What Inflation? – Addendum.” For what it’s worth, this piece is also traveling around the internet under the title of simply, “Entry Level Wage Inflation.”
Monday began with an official COT Sell signal in the U.S. Dollar Index that we published in TraderPlanet. This trade was actually a follow up to the previous week’s piece also published in TraderPlanet.
We combined these into one post including the annotated US Dollar Index chart in – The USD Index – A Speculative Bull Trap?