Tag Archives: S&P 500 expiration

S&P 500 Expiration Cycle Points Towards Further Gains

We’ve discussed the peculiarities of the stock index futures’ expiration cycle in detail here before.

Commercial traders in the stock index futures behave quite differently than the Index traders or, small speculators who act as their counterparts. Collectively, this is perfectly logical. Index traders are positive feedback traders. Positive feedback traders add on to their bullish positions as the market climbs and scale out of their bullish positions as the market declines. This keeps their portfolio balanced to their available cash resources. This also places them on the side most likely to buy the highs and sell the lows. Typical trend following. Small speculators are a sentiment wild card. Their position is more price and sentiment based than anything else. The randomness of their sentiment makes their positions too yielding to lean on.

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Commitment of Traders Report Returns S&P 500 to1900

The weekly Commitment of Traders report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission tracks the markets’ players of consequence. The report breaks down the actions of the commodity index funds, managed money, small speculators and finally, the commercial traders. For the purpose of this article, we’ll focus on the commercial trader category. I’ve been reading these reports for twenty years and there’s a phenomenon that I’ve counted now 13 times in the S&P 500 futures that is usually tied to the expiration of the quarterly contracts. This setup has had a 76% forecasting accuracy for the period in which we measured its effectiveness. Most importantly, we find ourselves in the middle of this rare event even as we speak.

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