The Japanese Yen’s rally since their move to negative interest rates has been an economic phenomenon that I simply can’t get my head around. Perhaps a case of the government not taking more is akin to losing a foot rather than the entire leg? I suppose my lack of understanding is one of the reasons I follow the collective actions of the commercial traders in the commodity markets. While any individual can be wrong at any given moment, the commercial traders, as a group, have a knack for having the right position on at the right moments. Whether by research or algorithm by hook or by crook, there is little question in our minds which group we should be following. Today, we’ll update you on their most bearish position in the Japanese Yen in more than six years.
We’ve been tracking the interest rate complex even more closely since October when we saw the commercial traders beginning to place their bets ahead the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) December meeting and while we’d like to take credit for the predominantly correct calls in the interest rate sector through 2015, we really have to chalk it up to knowing who to follow. The commercial traders have done a great job of anticipating both the FRB’s actions and the market’s reactions. Join us as we determine how their recent actions have affected the bond markets and what the spread movement in this market sector could mean to the broader economy going forward.
The general gist of these headlines is twofold. Janet Yellen and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors is doing everything they can to talk the market into behaving in an orderly fashion as the Fed prepares to enact the shift in interest rate policy that they’ve been telegraphing since the end of the taper announcement last summer. Secondly, the reason the Fed is trying to talk some sense into the markets is because the markets don’t seem to believe the in the Fed’s intentions.