There are two deeply conflicting sides of the natural gas trade heading into late summer. On one hand, we’re coming off a record setting El Nino that is translating into a La Nina late summer/fall weather pattern. The post El Nino, La Nina weather pattern is already bringing the expected heat that comes with it but speculators want more. They want more heat and they want the hurricane season to be an active one. These are the two bullish components of a fundamentally weak natural gas market. Natural gas producers are selling forward production at their fastest rate since the fall of 2013. The question here becomes a bit more ambiguous as producer selling can have as much to do with selling forward supplies to raise cash as it can the their expectation of current market prices versus forward prices. We’ll look at weather patterns, seasonality and the commercial trader vs speculator balance in the market to determine a proper course of action heading into this market’s critical seasonal period.