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Trading Ukraine Uncertainty

Removing the politics of the Russia-Ukraine issue and focusing on the economic implications of Russia’s bloodless annexation of the Crimean peninsula puts some trading opportunities on the table as global risk premiums jump. In order to do this, a couple of suppositions must be declared. First and most importantly, the United States will not actively engage Russian troops. In many ways, this is a replay of the Georgian conflict in 2008. Georgia was in revolt against Russia and wanted closer ties to the European Union and the US. Their cause was quickly championed by Western leaders until it became obvious that neither the European Union, The United States nor, NATO would take any military action to defend Georgia against Russia. This episode set the precedent for the current situation.

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