This week’s piece will be short, sweet and data driven. Soybeans have rallied more than $3 per bushel in as many months. Much of this has been based on expected declines in South American production as El Nino has wrought havoc on Argentinian and Brazilian farmers. However, the USDA numbers don’t justify recent price gains while either viewing the recent Supply and Demand report on it’s own or, within the context of tracking the USDA’s actions since the market got rolling in early March. Therefore, we’ll do the calculations and explain the current premium between the USDA’s forecasted prices and where we’re currently trading.