Tag Archives: gdp

Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2016

By Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington

The Separate Constraints of Deficit Spending and Debt

Real per capita GDP has risen by a paltry 1.3% annualized since the current expansion began in 2009. This is less than half of the 2.7% average expansion since the records began in 1790. One of the most persistent impediments to growth has been the drag from fiscal policy, a constraint that is likely to become even more severe in the next decade. The standard of living, or real median household income, has only declined in the 2009-2016 expansion and stands at the same level reached in 1996.

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Weekly Commodity Strategy Review

This morning’s unrevised Q4 GDP number at 2.2% on declining corporate profits provides just the right ambiance for a what has been a gloomy week. While we had a completely separate trade looking at multi-year lows in , “Time to Sweeten on Sugar,” most of our focus was on the financial markets.

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American Investors Safe from Nickel’s Boom and Bust

There’s good news on the horizon for the average U.S. retail investor. There’s a bubble coming and for once, Joe Investor is going to miss out on the boom and crash. Two primary stories create the potential for a short-term meteoric rise in prices only to quickly plunge as macro economic forces and political issues sort themselves out. In a world full of financial instruments, global exchanges and products ranging from weather derivatives to technology indexes to silkworm futures, the base metal nickel is inaccessible to the average retail American trader.

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Commercial Traders Own the Stock Market’s Gyrations

The stock market doesn’t seem to know whether good news is good or bad news is good. The equity markets have sold off between 4 and 6 percent since we published this key reversal in early March with the small cap Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 tech stocks peaking a month before the big Dow and S&P stocks rolled over. April’s unemployment report supplied the catalyst for the Dow and S&P sell off but again the question becomes, “is bad news still good for business friendly easy monetary policies or, does good news mean we’re finally back on track?” Based on a number of factors, it appears the answer is somewhere in the middle. The Goldilocks equity market likes its data neither too hot nor, too cold.

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Trading Ukraine Uncertainty

Removing the politics of the Russia-Ukraine issue and focusing on the economic implications of Russia’s bloodless annexation of the Crimean peninsula puts some trading opportunities on the table as global risk premiums jump. In order to do this, a couple of suppositions must be declared. First and most importantly, the United States will not actively engage Russian troops. In many ways, this is a replay of the Georgian conflict in 2008. Georgia was in revolt against Russia and wanted closer ties to the European Union and the US. Their cause was quickly championed by Western leaders until it became obvious that neither the European Union, The United States nor, NATO would take any military action to defend Georgia against Russia. This episode set the precedent for the current situation.

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2014 – Equity Flop & Commodity Hop

I thought taking a vacation at the end of 2013 might allow me to come back to the markets with a clear head and new viewpoint. My hope was that a little detachment would bring the forest back into the picture at 35,000 feet. I’ve now caught up on my reading and research and find the markets just as schizophrenic as they were when I left. While the markets remain as confusing as ever, our trip did provide me with the sense of awe that comes from physically standing in the presence of thousands of years of history. One thing is for certain; mankind always finds a way.

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China Bolsters Copper Market

The United States is crawling into 2014 with the Federal Reserve Board doing everything it can to stave off deflation. Years of zero percent interest rate policies along with the current $85 billion per month in stimulus have failed to generate inflation in anything but the stock market. This leaves GDP well below 2% and unemployment remains stubbornly high. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank just cut their rates in half, now at a .25%, to spur any kind of economic growth of their own. Typically, two thirds of the world, North America and Europe mired in economic doldrums would lead to a generally soft commodity outlook. However, China’s growth continues to be the real story and this is best explained by the inner workings of the copper market.

China’s growth rate continues to exceed 7.5% and is expected to register a third consecutive quarter of growth, which may top 8% for Q4. The vast majority of this growth is in building. Industrial infrastructure and residential construction continue to boom. China’s arcane domestic investment laws are partly to blame for this as their residents have very few open channels of investment other than real estate. Further muddying the waters is their version of the loan qualification process, which now accepts hard assets, like copper as collateral. This has put China in the top spot in global copper consumption. In fact, they consume approximately 40% of the world’s copper shipments.

We often refer to copper as, “the economist of the metals market.” The logic follows the line of copper as a base need for economic expansion, which we view as building stuff – houses, electronics, buildings, cars, etc. It appears that the Chinese growth story is bigger than old world economic malaise. The copper market has seen renewed interest in commercial buying since Bernanke’s tapering talk in August signaled an, “everybody out of the pool,” moment.  In fact, cash copper prices are trading above the copper future’s price and copper miners are negotiating just how high they’re going to set their premiums for 2014.

The current spot premium is around $.05 – $.07 per pound which reflects the highest premium since the collapse of ’08. The surge in demand is prompting premium increases of 50% and higher as producers negotiate with Europe, Asia and America. Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer has announced planes to raise Chinese premiums by 41%. There are similar increases of 50% for the U.S. and up to 75% for the European Union. These price rises come in the face of an expected surplus of 200, 000 tons (less than 2% of total market) after experiencing a three-year supply deficit. In spite of the projected surplus, Codelco has openly admitted that they’ve hedged none of their forward production.

Commercial traders in the copper market were what tipped me off to the market’s increasingly bullish outlook. I was so busy looking at our domestic economy that I didn’t see the rebound in their buying after initial talk of tapering, which pointed to slowing growth and declining demand created the bearish scenario I outlined in Augusts’, “Copper Points to Slowing Economy.” Clearly, the cash market premiums are leading end line users to hedge their future needs through the purchase of forward copper futures contracts.

The largest net long position I can find for commercial traders in the copper market is near 40,000 contracts. This was made during the July sell-off. Previously, the largest net long commercial position I could find was in February of 2009 when copper was trading at $1.75 per pound and we were coming out of the major market crash.  What the market is seeing now is a greater willingness to own copper at much higher prices. This buying support is putting a floor in the market around the $3 per pound level and is prolonging the sideways market direction that has persisted throughout the year. The longer this occurs, the closer we are to breaching the downward sloping trend line that originated at the 2011 highs around $4.80 and now comes into play around $3.36 per pound. Obviously, a move above this would confirm the move for 2014.

We see two potential concerns in this 2014 scenario. First of all, China has always been an opaque marketplace where the economic statistics produced by the government must always be taken with a grain of salt. There is talk that end line demand is nowhere near as strong as Chinese imports suggest. However, for our purposes, it is pretty irrelevant if China is using their copper imports or, storing them. Either way, supplies are being taken off the market. Secondly, much of the mining that’s counted in moving us to surplus is in new mines whose production is only estimated. Therefore, their production numbers aren’t yet solidified. Finally, all things considered, copper may be one of the best physical assets to own as we approach 2014.

Energy in the U.S. and China

The global energy market recently passed two milestones. First, China passed the US as the number one importer of crude oil in the world in September. Second, the US passed Saudi Arabia as the largest fossil fuel producer in the world last week. Neither of these incidents came as a surprise. Both trends have been progressing roughly as expected. However, now that we’ve reached critical mass in forcing the evolution of the global energy markets, it’s time to take a look at some of the longer-term changes that will arise as a result of these events.

China was destined to become the number one energy importer due to its population growth, economic growth and geography. While we are concerned about whether the effects of the government shutdown may trim two percentage points off of our third quarter GDP of less than 2%, the Chinese have been chugging along at GDP near 8% and haven’t seen their Gross Domestic Product drop below 6% since 1991. The economic boom in China is still in full swing. Speculative phases like warehouse space or production facilities may have been overbuilt just like their housing markets but the infrastructure buildup remains in full force. The governmentally sponsored projects continue to redefine the Chinese way of life through the addition of roads, bridges, trains and power plants.

The growth in China comes as we isolate ourselves here in North America. China is still our second largest trade partner. Most of our trade with them is at the cheap manufacturing level. Meanwhile our number one trade partner has become Canada. Our trade with Canada is much nearer to equal than our Chinese trading relationship. According to the July, 2013 US Census, our trade with Canada occurs at a 7% deficit while we import 280% more goods from China than we export to them. Our growing isolationism can be confirmed since Mexico is our third largest trade partner.

This brings us back to Saudi Arabia and energy production. There are two main reasons for our declining ties to Saudi oil. First of all, American vehicles have become more fuel-efficient. The University of Michigan tracks average fuel efficiency of all new cars sold on a monthly basis. There has been a 20% increase in the fuel efficiency since 2007. Furthermore, the, “Cash for Clunkers” program took approximately 700,000 inefficient vehicles off the market further adding to the overall efficiency of our current fleet. Secondly, fracking and tar sands production have vaulted the US into the leading petro-chemical producer in the world. Saudi Arabia and Russia still produce more oil but our total distillate output has surpassed them.

These major trends will continue for many years into the future. The US is expected to become fully energy independent by 2020. Meanwhile, China will become increasingly dependent on world supplies. We used the following example in describing the growth of the Chinese hog market a few years ago and the comparison still fits. The Chinese story is all about developing a new middle class and putting newly disposable income into new hands. The first new expenses are better food, clothing and shelter. Moving up the ladder, the new middle class expands into luxury goods like cars and vacation travel. The average Chinese person uses about 3 barrels of crude oil per year. The average US citizen use more than 21 barrels per year. Clearly, this gap has room to close as the new Chinese middle class continues to westernize.

The growing demands of the Chinese middle class will change the way China conducts itself in global politics. Energy analysts at Wood McKenzie expect China to claim as much as 70% of the global oil imports by 2020. Therefore, at the same time the US becomes energy self-sufficient, China will become even more energy dependent. This will place them in a different role regarding global peace, especially in the Middle East, as unrest there will affect their country more than anyone else. This should cause China to continue to grow their military, especially their naval power and should have the unintended benefit of allowing us to scale back our military investments. Hopefully, the politicians here won’t spin this into another cold war as an excuse to renew domestic military investment

China’s growing need to purchase oil on the global market will force their hand in freeing up their currency to float.  Trade partners will not do business in a currency that can be manipulated at the drop of a hat. Opening their markets and allowing their currency to float will encourage investment flows in both directions. Big picture analysis suggests that this could be the catalyst towards pushing China into the dominant super power role. They have the demographics and capital necessary to generate the need for currency reserves and open markets. The last thing to develop will be the political ties towards the Middle East oil producers and finally, armed services to guarantee their trade routes remain open.

Market Reactions to Debt Ceiling Changes

The ongoing budget and debt ceiling issues have arguably become as contentious as the Trayvon Martin case in social media. This is as vocally divided as I’ve seen my social media feeds. The left claims that the Republicans are solely to blame for our issues while the right insists we cannot spend forever what we haven’t got. Personally, I think both sides have their heads shoved very deeply up a warm and dark bodily cavity. While Congress argues about how to spend our money and money we haven’t got, they receive a lifetime’s salary plus benefits for 4-6 years of work yet have the nerve to use the term, “welfare state,” in public.

Whether you agree with the left, right or somewhere in the middle is irrelevant in the world of managing finances and trading. What matters is empirical data, not conjecture. A quick survey clearly shows that the economy is starting to slow due to the government shutdown. Consumer confidence is plummeting along with Congress’ approval rating. Government loans are being stalled for small businesses. Mortgages are stalling because government guarantees can’t be secured. Customs is turning into a choke point for global trade as inspections can’t be done and clearances can’t be granted. These are all quantifiable drags on our economy and will be reflected in lower GDP numbers.

The previous points are all uselessly valid. We don’t trade US Customs volume and our assets aren’t invested in Brazilian oranges left rotting at a dock. Our assets are directly placed in the US financial markets. I’ve spent the last week compiling a spreadsheet of debt ceiling negotiations and raises (there haven’t been any decreases) from the last twenty years and compared it to the most likely assets to be affected: interest rates, the US Dollar, gold and the S&P 500. Professors always say that economic choices are made, “at the margin.” Our philosophy has always been to stay ahead of the margin calls in the first place.

The debt ceiling has been raised 18 times since 1993. I chose this start date because it gives us 20 years worth of data during the most politicized portion of our history. Furthermore, the past twenty years have participated in the boom of the information age where the average person on the street has had more and more access to more and more information than ever. This allows all of us to make investment decisions based on fully formed opinions on events as they unfold. Therefore, the data set should be representative of the current investment climate.

Based on what has happened in the past, how can we best position ourselves for the future? Unfortunately, the data is mixed, at best. Because I’m old school and still do charting and modeling by hand, I chose a simple premise. “Where did the markets close the day before the debt ceiling was raised and where were they trading ten days later?” The range of results varied little by direction. The most predictable asset class is the interest rate sector by using the 10-year Treasury Note as a proxy. Ten year Treasury Notes traded lower (higher yields) 11 out of 18 times. This seems logical as raising the debt ceiling should force us to pay more in future obligations. It is worth noting that the declines in the 10-year Note came against the backdrop of a 25-year bull run in the interest rate sector.

The S&P 500 was the second most bearish market as it was lower ten days after the announcement in 10 out of 18 instances by an average of 1.6%. The S&P also retained its typical character of panic sell-offs. The largest gain was only 4.82% in May of 2003 while there were four occurrences of losses greater than 5%. Two were greater than 10%. The largest 10-day loss was a whopping 22.7%. Therefore, raising the debt ceiling and conducting government business as usual is not always a positive for the stock market.

The lone bull in the markets examined was the US Dollar. The slight bullishness in the US Dollar surprised me. The Dollar was higher in 10 out of 18 instances by an average of 1.3%. This is where multiple types of analysis really work together. Last week, we suggested that the Dollar is setting up for a downward trending run. I stand by that analysis. Monday, October 7th, Trader Planet published a piece I wrote on the counter trend bounce typically found in the US dollar after multiple moves to new 30-day lows. The Dollar situation as a whole confirms this theory. I expect the Dollar to rally short-term but fall over the course of time.

Gold was the final market we went into. I didn’t expect to find much here and I didn’t. Perhaps, the biggest point to be made here is that anyone trying to talk you into buying gold because the government is failing, inflation is coming, the Dollar is dying, etc must have a hidden agenda. The data simply doesn’t support the sales pitch. In fact, the biggest moves in the post debt ceiling adjustments in gold were to the downside. The general direction however remains a coin toss as the gold market moved up and down with equal frequency over the last 18 instances.

Finally, there’s one last point to be made of historical proportion and I have to credit my brilliant nephew, Erik VanDootingh for tipping me off to it ahead of the news curve. The markets are scared. Big, BIG money is scared. This can best be measured by the difference between the interest rates that the US government is paying for loans versus what international banks are charging to borrow from each other. Technically, this is the spread between Treasury Bill rates and LIBOR (London Interbank Overnight Lending Rate). For the first time in history, including the 2008-2009 implosion, our government is being charged a higher interest rate to borrow money than banks are charging each other. Interest rates are based on risk. The higher the risk, the higher the rate charged. Let that sink in awhile as you ponder, “too big to fail.”