This year began with a bang. Our forecasting models accurately predicted many of 2016’s early commodity rallies in metals, energies and grains. Our models also expressed the notion that while these rallies would be sharp, there was little evidence to suggest that this was anything more than a temporary spike in a deflating global economy. Therefore, the persistence of these rallies has been the biggest surprise of the year. However, the same factors that have led us to believe that these rallies would be temporary have only increased their alarm. This week, we’ll examine the primary component of our deflationary argument while also shedding some light on an inspired tweak to an existing measure of global economic activity.