It is time to look at alternative ways to hedge against rising interest rates. Unfortunately, with the huge increase in volatility due to so many headline issues from Greece to trading halts on the NYSE, that it makes it tough to hold onto positions. Fortunately, the most liquid interest rate market is structured in such a way that hedging against inflation can be done with a reasonably fixed amount of risk.
Indecision, fear and uncertainty continue to strengthen their grip on the markets as we head towards the Federal Open Market Committee’s FOMC meeting beginning today as well as a possible Greek default by the end of the month. Faced with the possibility of correctly forecasting the actual events of the FOMC and the Greeks versus trading the reality of the markets’ collective reactions, investors are taking chips off the table. Here’s a brief look at why chips are stacked a bit differently than they have been since the ’08 economic collapse and the one pocket of the interest rate sector that could benefit substantially should indecision, turmoil and volatility be the effects of this month’s economic announcements.
I frequently talk about using the commercial traders as a proxy for fundamental information. Commercial traders’ pinpoint focus on the markets they trade takes into account the supply and demand structure within their individual markets, including stocks and bonds. Furthermore, their actions within the markets they trade literally, tell us what they expect to happen within their market going forward. Thus, our thesis that, “No one knows the markets they trade like those whose livelihood is based directly upon the correct forecasting of their market.” All things being equal, when my analysis of the fundamentals seems confounded, I defer to the respective experts within their markets. Finally, when the market sectors are analyzed in total, commercial traders’ actions can lead to a bigger picture. The recent shift in their positions within the financial markets leads me to believe Continue reading Expected Turbulence in the Financial Markets
This was a quiet week on the trading front. Our editor was out on Monday so, we had no piece for TraderPlanet. We did follow up on Tuesday with, “Commitment of Traders Report Caps Eurodollar Rally” in Equities.com. This trade is still worth looking at as it will take quite a while to pan out.
Our main feature was the chart and graph intensive, “October Market Volatility Scared No One.” This piece seems to be pretty well received based on its near instant #1 Google rank for articles on the market’s recent volatility. We compared seven commodity markets across the equity, interest rate and precious metals sectors and their interactions through October’s expanding volatility. The fact that we didn’t find what we were expecting to is far more telling about our current place in the markets and where we may be headed.
Finally, I urge you take a look at the Mechanical Commitment of Traders Program we’ve developed and see how breaking the markets into separate long and short trades can improve your swing trading odds.
Commercial traders have been selling Eurodollars at an amazing rate. The Commitment of Traders report shows that they’ve sold more than 1,000,000 contracts since mid-September. You can see on the chart below that this selling has shifted their momentum to the sell side for the first time in sixteen months. We took a closer look at this for our piece in Equities.com.
Today’s Scottish secession vote takes a 300-year-old issue and covers it with 21st century journalism. There’s hardly any angle that hasn’t been talked to death. Surprisingly, I’ve found something of major importance leading up to the vote that isn’t being discussed anywhere. The commercial traders in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report are making a clear point that they collectively feel that the currency markets are about to tighten, rather than continuing to widen as they have for the last month or so.
Thursday’s landmark vote to return Scotland to its own sovereignty is becoming a tighter race with each passing day. The interesting part in the analysis is that the money has been flowing into the British Pound and Euro Currency and out of the U.S. Dollar Index. This places the commercial traders’ actions directly at odds with the currency markets’ collective movement over the last two to three months leading into the Scottish secession vote.
We cover the analysis of the following charts in Equities.com.
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The commodity markets have been unkind to long only funds and indexes in 2014. Most of the commodity markets have been sideways to lower with a couple of exceptions like cocoa and cattle. This week, we’re focusing on the broader commodity landscape due to an article published on Bloomberg by Debarati Roy in which she stated that open interest in gold had slumped to a five year low. We’ve expanded on this topic to include 27 general commodity markets and compared their current open interest to where they stood both one month and one year ago respectively. The purpose is to determine whether smart money is headed into or, out of the commodity markets in general as well as what affect this may have on the markets going forward.