The Australian Dollar has slid nearly 9% in just the last month. We were exceptionally suspect of the rally that took place between February and April, as we didn’t see commercial trader confirmation of commodity demand, Australia’s primary industry, supporting higher commodity prices going forward. In fact, our data sources made us suspect of the entire metals and energy rallies we’re currently seeing come to an end. This is one of the primary values of tracking the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. It provides a tally sheet for fundamental supply and demand. Recently, we’ve seen some commercial traders nibbling at the long end of the Aussie Dollar and, given its recent decline, we feel it is due for a tradable, short-term pop.
October lean hog futures’ attempt to rally over the last couple of weeks has run out of gas. Their turning point coincided nicely with technical, seasonal and fundamental resistance. Lets take a look at the combination of factors that could continue to drive this market lower through early September.
This week will be a short myopic view of the internal workings of the interest rate futures market sector focusing on a potential short selling opportunity in the 10-year Treasury Note futures.
The live cattle market spent all of spring and early summer in a tight trading range roughly bound by $155 on the high side and supported near $147 on the low side. The market has finally created some action by falling through the support near $148 over the last two weeks with the current low now near $145. 50. Chart readers would see the fall through this level as a breakout and anticipate further weakening of the cattle market. However, there are two very good reasons this may be a short trap triggering a reversal rally into expiration.
We’ve discussed the peculiarities of the stock index futures’ expiration cycle in detail here before.
Commercial traders in the stock index futures behave quite differently than the Index traders or, small speculators who act as their counterparts. Collectively, this is perfectly logical. Index traders are positive feedback traders. Positive feedback traders add on to their bullish positions as the market climbs and scale out of their bullish positions as the market declines. This keeps their portfolio balanced to their available cash resources. This also places them on the side most likely to buy the highs and sell the lows. Typical trend following. Small speculators are a sentiment wild card. Their position is more price and sentiment based than anything else. The randomness of their sentiment makes their positions too yielding to lean on.
This was our U.S. Dollar Index piece posted at TraderPlanet on Monday. It seems there was an issue with the chart.
The piece actually begins with our January 5th article when we saw the commercial trading position getting out of whack as based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders reports. Our initial discussion can be found here.
We updated it this week with the following piece, chart and trading signal.
The gold market has simply been stagnant for more than a year now. Prices may be higher year to date but virtually any gold traded at $1,300 per ounce over the last year has seen both sides of the ledger. The trading pattern that’s developing continues to consolidate. The tighter this consolidation becomes, the more explosive its breakout should be. This week’s piece will be short because this is one of those instances when a picture really is worth a thousand words.
We published this short sale in RBOB unleaded gasoline Monday night for COT Signals subscribers and followed it up with commentary for Equities.com on Tuesday morning. You can read, “Are Rising Gas Prices a Trading Opportunity?” at Equities.com. You can see the effects of commercial traders buying and selling RBOB unleaded gas and the summertime peak gas price on the chart we posted at COT Signals.
This trading setup is a classic Commitment of Traders Sell signal and shows why we use the CFTC Commitment of Trader reports as the primary basis for screening our trading opportunities. Follow the links to see how we do it or better yet, call us and ask us how.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut their lending rates at the June 5th meeting. There are a couple of really interesting precedents setting up. First of all, the ECB is expected to
not only cut their discount rate but also the deposit rates paid to banks who park cash overnight at the ECB. Given the already low starting rate of .25% discount and 0% overnight, the expected cuts will cut the current discount rate in half and drive the overnight rate negative. Thus, the ECB will be charging banks to hold bank deposits. Secondly, the Euro currency market internals should be weakening ahead of the expected rate cut. After all, the rate cut should make owning Euros less attractive to the investing public’s hunt for yield. We’ll examine both of these situations as the former plays out on the
macro landscape while the latter presents an immediate trading opportunity.