Tag Archives: corn rally

Weekly Commodity Strategy Review 11/21/2014

Monday’s corn analysis for TraderPlanet couldn’t have been more timely. Our mechanical swing trading programs picked up the highs being made in the grains as a short selling opportunity that bore fruit right through yesterday’s exit. We discussed the Commitment of Traders report’s importance in determining resistance levels as defined by the commercial traders’ volume and execution prices.

Read, “Corn Rally Stalls Short of $4.”

Continue reading Weekly Commodity Strategy Review 11/21/2014

Corn Rally Stalls Short of $4

The corn market has found some harvest strength. We first suggested this in, mid-October in, “Commitment of Traders Report to Turn Positive in Corn Futures.” Our tone has changed recently as reported in, “Corn Rally Stalls on Commercial Selling.” The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report shows that the area between $3.60 and $3.80 was heavily traded among the commercial traders. Based on our experience, the price levels that previously acted as support will now act as resistance. Commercial traders have a habit of reverting to the mean. This behavior should result in enough commercial selling on this rally to offset the long hedges that were initiated on the way down, thus providing enough selling pressure to cap prices near these levels.

It turns out that, like last week’s Bond market trade, the corn futures market wants to do it on its own timing. Like the Bond trade, the corn trade is a big picture trade. Therefore, the initial timing isn’t as important as its continued monitoring for opportunities.

Thanks to Friday’s trade, the opportunity is here.

Continue reading Corn Rally Stalls Short of $4

Weekly Commodity Strategy Review 11/07/2014

cot_bannerLooks like we’re batting .500 for the week with a loss in the bond market being more than offset by the profits in corn. Meanwhile, our primary piece uncovered a nice pattern in the crude oil futures that we’re still waiting to take action on.

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The story in, Bonds Creeping Towards Lower Yields, which was published at TraderPlanet still holds. Commercial traders, while roughly neutral in their current position, have rapidly purchased more than 17,000 heading into this week’s trading. This buying should help the support around 140^00 hold as the market makes some type of run at the October highs.

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Tuesday’s corn futures trade for Equities.com combined classic Commitment of Traders’ analysis along with an inside bar trigger to enter the trade. Sometimes, it works like a champ. It’s a high percentage trade and it played out well.

Corn Rally Stalls on Commercial Selling

Finally, our main piece required eyeballing more than 20 years’ worth of commercial trader activity in crude oil futures. In, “Time to Buy Crude Oil’s Decline” we discussed a very specific pattern that we’ve only found eight examples of in the crude oil futures. More importantly, this pattern’s predictive power has been quite strong. Read the full piece for details.

The bulk of my Commitment of Traders research has gone into creating COT Signals.