The U.S. Treasury Bond market has been held hostage for the last year as the developed world argues about economic stimulus. The argument began to grow back in December of 2014 as Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stated, “The committee considers it unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings.” This sent rates plummeting and Treasury Bond and stock prices screaming higher. This move was widely anticipated and was perhaps, the last choreographed move between the Treasury and its markets’ participants as market participation since then has declined dramatically. This has left the biggest traders in the deepest markets debating domestic Fed policy in a world of increasingly negative interest rates, while raising domestic rates for the first time in nearly 10 years.
The farming industry in the United States has been under considerable pressure as the gains of years’ past were quickly washed away by modern technology and agronomy practices. The record prices achieved in soybeans just last year now seem like a lifetime ago to farmers who bought land and equipment based on the increasing average prices of corn, soybeans and wheat over the last decade. Today, we’ll take a long-term look at the soybean market and see what has farmers so anxious to sell.
The Canadian Dollar is primarily a commodity based currency. Whether the commodity is being extracted, processed or exported, the commodity itself touches a lot of Canadian hands on its way out the door. As such, it’s not surprising that the recent commodity rally has sparked a bid in the Canadian Dollar just as the oil and grain washout contributed to its oversold condition at the beginning of this year. This week, we’ll look at some fundamental background, then illustrate the current situation and the setup we see coming on the included Canadian Dollar weekly and daily charts.
This week, we’re going to take a step back and look at the big picture in the gold futures market through the eyes of the Commitments of Traders report. We’ll discuss how to use it to spot tops in the gold market, specifically but note that the fundamental thesis behind this piece holds just the same for every commodity market we trade. Finally, we’ll look at the current projections for the commercial traders’ most bearish net position since December of 2012 when gold was trading at $1,700 per ounce.
Tech issues with my charting platform sent me to my list of non-chart critical backup topics. Before breezing past a non-market topic piece ask yourself, “Am I a discretionary or, mechanical trader?” This isn’t a gray area. Mechanical trading involves following a specific set of rules that has garnered a positive expectancy over the course of time. Discretionary trading is any trading that makes the trader a variable, whether through the interpretation of the signal’s rules, asset allocation and weighting to chart pattern and fundamental data interpretation. Most traders fall into the discretionary category when looked at honestly. This makes the trader the biggest variable in a given investment sector. We’ll take a look at the frailty of the human psyche as well as a perspective that’s ameliorated more than twenty years of trading for a living stress.