Right vs. Profitable

As many of you know, I’ve suggested being long the cotton market for a while, now. The recent setup can be seen here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXUynIIiTNk . I suggested this trade on the 26th, knowing that the crop acreage report which can be found here with other USDA Grain Reports came out this morning. I expected a decline in cotton acreage of 10 – 15%. The number came out at 15% fewer acres planted. Clearly, I should have seen a swift rally through the 8230 – 8250 resistance. However, the market’s reaction to this number was to sell off 250+ points…..IMMEDIATELY! The market fell so swiftly that my protective sell stops were elected but, unable to be filled on the way down. Currently, I find myself sitting with a losing trade below my protective stop point in a market I was dead right on. I’m now tied to the screen trying to find a place to take my loss. The point is, “Being right, isn’t always profitable.”


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