CFTC vs. Commodity Index Traders

High grain and energy costs have finally generated enough momentum for the politicians to get involved. This past week, a paper was presented to Congress by Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management. He attributes the current price levels to creating an artificially high floor price due to the asset class categorization of commodities. The long only money that has poured into the markets is creating, “demand shock from a new category of speculators: institutional investors like
corporate and government pension funds, university endowments, and sovereign
wealth funds. He also, matter of factly states, “Index speculators are the primary cause of the recent price
spikes in commodities.”

One statistic that is being roughly, though widely, quoted, is the assumption that demand for exchange traded commodities over the last five years has increased equally between China and Commodity Index Funds. The CFTC is prepared to overhaul its system of reportable trading categories and players to try and pinpoint who is trading what and how much. The purpose is to differentiate between true physical price discovery and speculative froth.

Congress is prepared to assist the CFTC in outing the institutional speculative money by closing the swaps loophole that has allowed the billion dollar funds to enact futures transactions as swaps through their securities brokers (Merril, Goldman, etc.) who then hedge the swap in the futures market. This is how every individual fund has managed to stay off of the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders reports. The commodities are held assets with their broker while the broker executes the hedge and reports the position as their own.

The CFTC and Congress working hand in hand could bring an end to this bubble far quicker than peace in the Middle East or a bountiful global harvest.

Please, feel free to comment or, question. This is a small picture painted in broad brush strokes.

Have a wonderful weekend, Andy.

 

Competitive goods at the margin

As petroleum prices climb, alternative energy sources become more useful. So it is with biodiesel and soybeans. Look at the correlation during yesterday’s sell off and today’s rally.

Now, look at the 25 day correlation chart between the two markets.

Crude Fundamentals Remain Negative

The underpinnings of the Crude Oil market do not justify the current market prices.

1) Crude made new all time highs Friday….on declining open interest, which peaked last July.2) Distant delivery for Crude isn’t charging the storage and insurance premiums it should in a healthy bull market.3) Using NYSE prices, oil stocks are pricing it at $75 per barrel. 4) According to Business Week, the major players have done little to increase capital spending….even at these prices.