Renzi’s Great Gamble

Renzi’s Great Gamble

By Nick Andrews and Stefano Capacci
August 24, 2016

Prime ministers come and go in Italy – four since the financial crisis – but precious little seems to change. The latest incumbent, Matteo Renzi, has pursued structural reform more energetically than his predecessors. But for all the progress he has made, he might as well have been wading through molasses. Now, in a bid to secure a popular mandate for his restructuring program, Renzi has bet his premiership on a referendum over badly-needed constitutional reforms. It is a high stakes gamble.

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Gold and the US Dollar via the Commitments of Traders Report

This week, we’ll revisit the macro relationship between the gold and the U.S. Dollar Index. Then, we’ll examine the divergent trading behavior in the gold market between the large speculators who’ve recently set a new record position, and the commercial gold hedgers who are clearly happy to sell all of the forward production they can above $1,300 per ounce. Finally, we’ll discuss the relative and quantitative models based on the Commitments of Traders data that leads us to believe that the large speculators may be giving themselves too much credit for their recent success.

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Commitments of Traders Data Suggests Wheat Bottom not yet Formed

As many of you know, our our primary focus is the analysis of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report. More specifically, our analysis lies in finding and quantifying unsustainable position imbalances among the trader groups. In the past, we’ve measured this against both historical levels and recent changes in actions in order to quantify both market sentiment and market capacity among the different trading groups. Today, we’ll provide Equites.com’s readers with a first look into our new method of calculation. Why we changed and what it’s current telling us about the Chicago wheat market.

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Some Perspective on the USDA’s August 1 Corn and Soybean Yield Projections

Some Perspective on the USDA’s August 1 Corn and Soybean Yield Projections

rwin, S. and D. Good, Some Perspective on the USDA’s August 1 Corn and Soybean Yield Projections.” farmdoc daily (6):153, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 12, 2016.

Weekly Outlook: What Corn and Soybean Yield is the Market Trading?

Weekly Outlook: What Corn and Soybean Yield is the Market Trading?

Good, D. “Weekly Outlook: What Corn and Soybean Yield is the Market Trading?farmdoc daily (6):149, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 8, 2016.

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Early End to Recent Cattle Run

We wrote here at Equities.com on June 30th that we thought cattle were finding support in, “Cattle Finding a Bottom into Summer.” Over the last six weeks however, commercial traders have come back to the market on the sell side. Based on the commercial traders’ deteriorating evaluation of the fundamental picture along with the clear technical signals, we’re not only exiting our longs; we’re going short October live cattle.

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