Waldocktrades - Commodity Futures Trading Blog
Weekly Commodity Futures Blog by Andy Waldock
Commodity Trading - Future and Present

Commercial Traders Own the Stock Market’s Gyrations

The stock market doesn’t seem to know whether good news is good or bad news is good. The equity markets have sold off between 4 and 6 percent since we published this key reversal in early March with the small cap Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 tech stocks peaking a month before the big Dow and S&P stocks rolled over. April’s unemployment report supplied the catalyst for the Dow and S&P sell off but again the question becomes, “is bad news still good... << MORE >>

Cocoa Prices Set to Surge

It’s been more than a year since we’ve discussed the cocoa futures market in any depth. Last February we discussing the seismic changes in the Ivory Coast’s political landscape and the paradigm shift in farming practices this would facilitate. African politics being what they are, it should come as no surprise that two years later there’s been less hope and change than was originally sold to the country’s people. The result may cost First World cocoa consumers a ... << MORE >>

Bitcoin is Here to Stay

The next phase in the Bitcoin revolution will be the standardization of the exchanges where the coins are traded. Bitcoin is currently in the Wild West prospector days of its evolution. The world has agreed that a Bitcoin provides a stored measure of value in the same way that gold and silver have throughout the ages. Like gold and silver, Bitcoin is only worth what the other person is willing to pay you for it. This has led to cheating since trading began. Crooked scales and filled ore all became part of the norm as both the miners ... << MORE >>

Historical Wheat vs Corn Spread Prices

Trading the grain markets has always been tricky, especially during the planting and harvesting periods. Historically, this has placed us at the agricultural epicenter for global grain trade. Obviously, tension in Ukraine and the corresponding 15% spike in wheat prices have reminded everyone that even the agricultural markets are now a global game. In this respect, it’s no longer enough to keep an eye on domestic weather patterns to determine the success of our winter crops or anticipate spring ... << MORE >>

Global Uncertainty Strengthens Dollar

Five years ago the financial world was coming to an end. The stock market tanked and interest rates went negative due to the unsurpassed flight to safety in U.S. Treasuries. Most of this was due to greedy lending practices that claimed to be championing President Clinton’s thesis that everyone in America should be able to own a home. Lax lending requirements that were intended to get lower income earners into their own homes traveled up market and allowed upper middle and upper tier earners to refinance... << MORE >>

Trading Ukraine Uncertainty

Removing the politics of the Russia-Ukraine issue and focusing on the economic implications of Russia’s bloodless annexation of the Crimean peninsula puts some trading opportunities on the table as global risk premiums jump. In order to do this, a couple of suppositions must be declared. First and most importantly, the United States will not actively engage Russian troops. In many ways, this is a replay of the Georgian conflict in 2008. Georgia was in revolt against Russia and wanted closer ties to the ... << MORE >>

Gold and Silver Topping Out

The gold and silver markets have been perking up lately which happens to have coincided with the Fed’s talk of removing stimulus from the domestic economy. Logically, talk of higher interest rates has spurred interest in portfolio re-allocation towards gold and silver as investors attempt to get a jump on the beginning of a structural shift towards inflation. The result of this is that gold has rallied about 11.5% year to date and silver is up nearly 20%. Much of this rally has been technical in... << MORE >>

Corn Base Forming Well

The corn market is balancing several factors as we move towards the US planting season. On one hand, we have the bearish factors of a record global corn crop and the largest year ending stocks since 2001. On the other hand, we are witnessing a rapid and sustained growth in exports along with weather complications taking their toll on South American supplies. Given the technical and seasonal factors at play in this market, I think we have finally put in the post 2013 harvest lows and could continue higher into the planting season. << MORE >>

Overheated Heating Oil Market

I was fortunate enough to be interviewed for a heating oil story in the Wall Street Journal last week. The primary question was, “How high can prices soar?" Supplies have tightened up considerably during Mother Nature’s onslaught and another bout of cold weather is hitting us, pushing prices higher yet again. Short-term demand related issues like the ones we’re experiencing now due to the weather are never a reason to jump into a market. My less than sensational outlook on current prices pushed me to the closing section of the article. This week, I’ll expand on the topic ... << MORE >>

Protecting Stock Market Gains

This is the third cautionary report I’ve written on the stock market in six weeks. The last time I focused this heavily on the stock market was in early 2009. Back then, I was making a point to everyone who’d lost their shirt on the way down that employing the leverage provided by stock index futures contracts would be a great way to recoup some of their lost funds when the market bounced. This week, we’ll discuss the same strategy only in reverse. I’ll explain how to use leveraged futures to protect your equity portfolio ahead of time ... << MORE >>