The weekly Commitment of Traders report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission tracks the markets’ players of consequence. The report breaks down the actions of the commodity index funds, managed money, small speculators and finally, the commercial traders. For the purpose of this article, we’ll focus on the commercial trader category. I’ve been reading these reports for twenty years and there’s a phenomenon that I’ve counted now 13 times in the S&P 500 futures that is usually tied to the expiration of the quarterly contracts. This setup has had a 76% forecasting accuracy for the period in which we measured its effectiveness. Most importantly, we find ourselves in the middle of this rare event even as we speak.
We’ve been tracking the commercial traders’ actions via the CFTC Commitment of Traders report for years. Over the years, we’ve determined that their anxiousness to buy or sell matters every bit as much as their total buying or selling in raw numbers. The current situation in the S&P 500 futures is a great example of this.
Our research for TraderPlanet this morning suggests that the decline in silver may be nearing an end which could spring the mother of all short traps. The weekly Commitment of Traders report has shown commercial traders are exceptionally bullish at these prices and the trends on the chart suggest that December silver futures may not reach their downside objective thus forcing many small traders and trend followers to finally exit their short silver positions.
Monday once again started our week off with a bang in our feature for TraderPlanet. We looked at the technical, fundamental and geopolitical support the 10-yr Treasury Notes were nearing and indicated that a buying opportunity was upon us in, “Commercial Traders Support the 10yr Treasury Note.”
The commodity markets were designed for commodity producers and commodity end line consumers to limit the volatility and risk in their business models. Producers are only willing to keep producing when they can sell their production at a profit and end line commodity processors are only willing to buy them if they can realize a profit upon selling the goods they’ve finished. The creation of commodity trading floors provided a singular location for these transactions to be recorded along standardized times and qualities. Unfortunately, commodity producers only want to sell at high prices and commodity consumers only want to buy at low prices. This created the market makers, floor traders and speculator categories that have come into the markets to provide liquidity by providing bids and offers in between the producers and end users. This week, we focus on the creation of the commodity indexes and Exchange Traded Funds created by the banking sector and what effect the current period of low volatility and declining prices is having on the very banks that created them.
Orange juice futures sold off this summer as is normal during the primary growing season. Fundamental analysis in this market by the commercial traders via the weekly Commitment of Traders report clearly shows that long hedgers are locking in future input prices as they believe that OJ is a buy under the $1.45 area. You can see their excitement kick in once the market fell below $1.45 in mid-June.
We went into more detail including orange juice futures seasonal and expiration analysis in our piece for Equities.com.
The treasury markets have been stuck in a sideways trading pattern since the Federal Reserve Board’s announcement that they would begin tapering off the additional stimulus with the intention of completing their stimulus additions by year end.
Our week started off with a bang. Monday, we discussed how we use the small speculator category of the weekly Commitment of Traders report to pick off failing moves in the markets. The rally in cotton futures set us up beautifully for the sell signal we published at TraderPlanet and we’ve got more than $1,500 per contract in the trade already.
We spent the rest of the week focused on Thursday’s Scottish vote. There’s a very interesting angle playing out among the commercial traders in the currency markets. The Commitment of Traders Report clearly shows that commercial traders are expecting these currency markets to tighten rather than continuing to widen as they have for the last 5-6 weeks.
Our piece on Tuesday for Equities.com touched on the basics in, “Currency Trading the Scottish Secession Vote.”
Finally, our primary piece delved deeper into the same currency analysis, “Currency Reversal on Scottish Vote.” The primary factors for our currency expectations are still in play and we continue to look for the technical pattern that we outlined yesterday.
Today’s Scottish secession vote takes a 300-year-old issue and covers it with 21st century journalism. There’s hardly any angle that hasn’t been talked to death. Surprisingly, I’ve found something of major importance leading up to the vote that isn’t being discussed anywhere. The commercial traders in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report are making a clear point that they collectively feel that the currency markets are about to tighten, rather than continuing to widen as they have for the last month or so.
Thursday’s landmark vote to return Scotland to its own sovereignty is becoming a tighter race with each passing day. The interesting part in the analysis is that the money has been flowing into the British Pound and Euro Currency and out of the U.S. Dollar Index. This places the commercial traders’ actions directly at odds with the currency markets’ collective movement over the last two to three months leading into the Scottish secession vote.
We cover the analysis of the following charts in Equities.com.
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